Short answer: Central AC typically lasts 12–15 years, gas furnaces 15–20, and heat pumps 10–15. Past that, repair bills climb and efficiency drops — replace before a July or January failure, when demand and prices peak.
System
Typical life
Watch after
Central AC
12–15 yrs
year 12
Gas furnace
15–20 yrs
year 15
Heat pump
10–15 yrs
year 10
Warning signs: short-cycling, uneven temperatures room to room, rising energy bills, frequent repairs, or a system still running the old R-22 refrigerant (phased out, and expensive to top off). Any two of these on a 12+ year system and it's replacement territory.
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Budget $5,000–12,000 for a full replacement depending on size, efficiency, and whether ductwork is involved. The move is to price it in the shoulder season — spring or fall — when installers are slow and discounts appear, rather than the day the AC quits in a heat wave.
HVAC system lifespan by brand
Lifespans vary by brand. Pick yours for the specific numbers and what to watch:
Plan on 12–15 years for central AC and heat pumps, 15–20 for a furnace. Regular filter changes and annual service push those toward the high end.
Is it cheaper to replace AC in the off-season?
Usually. Installers discount in spring and fall when demand is low, so pricing a replacement before summer or winter beats an emergency swap during peak demand.